Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.00 %, Hang Seng rose 1.40 %, ASX 200 gained 0.90 %, Shanghai Composite closed for holiday
- Commodities: Gold at $1318 (+0.10 %), Silver at $19.26 (+0.30 %), WTI Oil at $47.95 (-0.60 %), Brent Oil at $50.00 (-0.45 %)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.61, UK 10 year yield at 0.76, German 10 year yield at -0.12
News & Data:
- Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q3: 6 (est. 7, prev. 6)
- Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index Q3: 18 (est. 18, prev. 19)
- Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q3: -3 (est. -5, prev. -5)
- Japan Tankan Small Non-Manufacturers Index Q3: 1 (est. 0, prev. 0)
- Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3: 6.30% (est. 6.50%, prev. 6.20%)
- Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Sep F: 50.4 (prev. 50.3)
- Australia MI Inflation Expectations (MoM) Sep: 0.4% (prev. 0.20%)
- Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Sep: 49.8 (prev. 46.9)
- China official services PMI rises to 53.7 for September
- China official manufacturing PMI expands slightly in September to 50.4
- German Economic Boom at Risk from Complacency, ZEW Chief Says
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR 76K short versus 85K short last week Shorts are pared by 9K
- GBP 88K short versus 59K short last week. Shorts increase by 29K
- JPY 69K long versus 59K long last week. Longs increase by 10K
- CHF 6K short versus 8K long last week. Shorts increase by 14K
- CAD 12K short versus 16K long last week. Short increase by 28K
- AUD 15K long vs 7K long last week. Longs increased by 8K.
- NZD 7K short vs 8k short last week. Shorts are pared by 1K
Markets Update:
It remained relatively quiet overnight, as Chinese and South Korean markets were closed for a holiday. Australian markets were open, but activity was low due to Labour Day holiday in several states.
EUR/USD opened at 1.1230, slightly lower from Friday's open, and consolidated in a 1.1225-45 range overnight. GBP/USD came under pressure after UK Prime Minister May announced that the government will trigger Article 50 in March of next year. The pair opened around 1.2915, down 70 pips from Friday's close, but was able to recover slightly later in the session, rising to 1.2945.
USD/JPY traded in a 101.18-70 range in Asia. The pair saw increased volatility after the Tokyo open, but eventually settled back around 101.41.
The commodity currencies are slightly down on the day, led by losses in the New Zealand Dollar, which is down 0.30 % against the USD.
Upcoming Events:
- 08:15 BST – Swiss Retail Sales
- 08:45 BST – Italian Manufacturing PMI
- 08:50 BST – French Manufacturing PMI
- 08:55 BST – German Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
- 09:30 BST – UK Manufacturing PMI
- 14:45 BST – US Manufacturing PMI
- 15:00 BST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, October 4th
- 01:30 BST – Australia Building Approvals
- 02:30 BST – RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks
- 04:30 BST – RBA Rate Decision
- 04:30 BST – RBA Rate Statement
- 09:30 BST – UK Construction PMI
- 13:05 BST – FOMC Member Lacker speaks
Wednesday, October 5th
- 01:30 BST – Australia Retail Sales
- 06:30 BST – RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaks
- 08:45 BST – Italian Services PMI
- 08:50 BST – French Services PMI
- 08:55 BST – German Services PMI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Services PMI
- 09:30 BST – UK Services PMI
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Retail Sales
- 13:15 BST – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 13:30 BST – US Trade Balance
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Trade Balance
- 14:45 BST – US Services PMI
- 15:00 BST – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, October 6th
- 01:30 BST – Australia Trade Balance
- 07:00 BST – German Factory Orders
- 08:15 BST – Swiss CPI
- 12:30 BST – ECB Meeting Minutes
- 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Building Permits
Friday, October 7th
- 07:00 BST – German Industrial Production
- 07:45 BST – French Current Account
- 07:45 BST – French Trade Balance
- 08:30 BST – UK Halifax House Price Index
- 09:30 BST – UK Manufacturing Production
- 09:30 BST – UK Industrial Production
- 13:30 BST – US NFP
- 13:30 BST – US Unemployment Rate
- 13:30 BST – US Average Hourly Earnings
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Employment Change
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Unemployment Rate
- 15:00 BST – Canadian Ivey PMI
- 15:30 BST – FOMC Member Fischer speaks
- 17:45 BST – FOMC Member Mester speaks
- 20:00 BST – FOMC Member George speaks
- 20:30 BST – CFTC Positioning Data
