Thursday 20th October: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.20 %, Shanghai Composite lost 0.10 %, Hang Seng rose 0.80 %, ASX 200 gained 0.25 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1273 (+0.30 %), Silver at $17.73 (+0.40 %), WTI Oil at $51.70 (-0.25 %), Brent Oil at $52.60 (-0.15 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.75, UK 10 year yield at 1.09, German 10 year yield at 0.03

News & Data:

  • Australia Employment Change (Sep): -9.8k (est 15.0K, prev rev to -8.6k from -3.9K)
  • Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep): 5.60% (est 5.70%, prev rev to 5.70% from 5.60%)
  • Australia Full Time Employment Change (Sep): -53k (prev rev to 101k from 11.5K)
  • Australia Part Time Change (Sep): (prev rev to -18.6k from -15.4K)
  • Australia Participation Rate (Sep): 64.50% (est 64.80%, prev 64.70%)
  • Australia NAB Business Confidence (Q3): 5 (prev rev to 3 from 2)
  • PBOC fixes yuan at 6.7311 (prev fix 6.7326, prev close 6.7385)
  • Brazil central bank cuts benchmark rate to 14%
  • Fear grows AAA rating to be lost — The Australian
  • Fed's Dudley: Fed is reasonably close to inflation and employment goals
  • Fed's Dudley: 25bps hike later this year 'not that big a deal'

Markets Update:

The Australian Dollar declined overnight after disappointing jobs data out of Australia. While the unemployment rate did decrease from 5.7 % to 5.6 %, employment change arrived at -9.8k vs. an expected increase of 15k. AUD/USD fell from 0.7730 to a low of 0.7675 so far. The New Zealand Dollar managed to remain bid however, as NZD/USD rose to a high of 0.7265. AUD/NZD came under pressure following the data and declined to 1.06.

EUR/USD was quiet and consolidated in a 1.0965-80 range. The ECB will decide on interest rates today and is expected to keep them unchanged. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is still struggling to keep itself above 1.23 and declined back to 1.2275 in Asia.

USD/JPY benefited from the rise in equity markets and climbed from 103.35 to 103.65 overnight. Resistance is now seen at 104.20, followed by 104.45/50.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:00 BST – Swiss Trade Balance
  • 07:00 BST – German PPI
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Current Account
  • 09:30 BST – UK Retail Sales
  • 12:45 BST – ECB Rate Decision
  • 13:30 BST – ECB Press Conference
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 BST – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 15:00 BST – US Existing Home Sales
  • 15:00 BST – US CB Leading Index

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