Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.25 %, Shanghai Composite gained 1.20 %, ASX 200 rose 0.10 %, Hang Seng closed for holiday
- Commodities: Gold at $1264 (+1.00 %), Silver at $17.71 (+1.90 %), WTI Oil at $49.38 (-0.90 %), Brent Oil at $51.50 (-0.80 %)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.72, UK 10 year yield at 0.98, German 10 year yield at 0.01
News & Data:
- PBOC Fixes Yuan Reference Rate at 6.7008 (prev 6.6778)
- PBoC sets CNY fix at weakest since September 2010
- SNB President Jordan: SNB Can Cut Rates Further If Needed – BBG
- ECB’s Draghi: ECB could hit inflation target by late 2018, early 2019 – RTRS
- BoJ’s Kuroda says can lower short, long-term rates if necessary – ET
- Kuroda: BOJ may delay hitting inflation target until 2018
- NZ FinMin English: Interest rates will soon begin to climb again – NZ Herald
- Australian Treasurer Morrison: Aussie Housing Risk Overdone, RBA Unlikely to Cut – BBG
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR 82K short versus 76K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K.
- GBP 98K short versus 88K short last week. Shorts increased by 10K
- JPY 69K long versus 69K long last week. Unchanged.
- CHF 3K short versus 6K short last week. Shorts pared by 3K.
- CAD 14K short versus 12K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
- AUD 24K long versus 15K long last week. Longs increased by 9K.
- NZD 8K short versus 7K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
Markets Update:
EUR/USD opened at 1.1195, little changed from Friday's close, and consolidated in a 1.1175-1.12 range. GBP/USD started the day at 1.2425 and traded between 1.2390 and 1.2445 in Asia. Volatility is likely to remain high in the GBP pairs in the near-term, as renewed Brexit concerns will weigh on the currency.
USD/JPY opened slightly higher from Friday's close, at 103.25, but it quickly reversed gains and filled the weekend gap. The pair fell to 102.80 overnight. Meanwhile, the commodity currencies were rather quiet. AUD/USD traded within a 0.7590-0.7610 range, and NZD/USD was stuck in a 0.7150-80 range.
USD/CAD saw a gap lower to 1.3235 at the open (vs. 1.3290 on Friday) and extended losses to 1.3225 later in the session. However, oil prices declined overnight and it will likely fill the weekend gap soon.
Upcoming Events:
- 06:45 BST – Swiss Unemployment Rate
- 07:00 BST – German Trade Balance
- 09:30 BST – Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, October 11th
- 00:50 BST – Japan Current Account
- 01:30 BST – Australia Home Loans
- 01:30 BST – Australia NAB Business Confidence
- 10:00 BST – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 13:15 BST – Canadian Housing Starts
- 16:00 BST – FOMC Member Kashkari speaks
Wednesday, October 12th
- 00:30 BST – Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment
- 00:50 BST – Japan Core Machinery Orders
- 07:00 BST – German WPI
- 07:45 BST – French CPI
- 10:00 BST – Bank of England Member Cunliffe speaks
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Industrial Production
- 13:00 BST – FOMC Member Dudley speaks
- 14:40 BST – FOMC Member George speaks
- 15:00 BST – US JOLTs Job Openings
- 19:00 BST – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, October 13th
- 01:00 BST – Australia MI Inflation Expectations
- 03:40 BST – China Trade Balance
- 07:00 BST – German CPI
- 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Housing Price Index
- 16:00 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
Friday, October 14th
- 01:30 BST – RBA Financial Stability Review
- 02:30 BST – China CPI
- 02:30 BST – China PPI
- 08:15 BST – Swiss PPI
- 10:00 BST – Italian CPI
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Trade Balance
- 13:30 BST – US Retail Sales
- 13:30 BST – US PPI
- 15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- 20:30 BST – CFTC Positioning Data
